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India's path to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final has become increasingly challenging after a heavy 184-run defeat against Australia in the Boxing Day Test at Melbourne. The loss saw India’s points percentage (PCT) drop from 55.89% to 52.77%, pushing them to third place in the WTC standings. With just 114 points from 18 matches in the 2023-25 cycle, India’s campaign now hinges on a series of critical scenarios.  

CURRENT WTC STANDINGS:  

1. South Africa- Qualified (PCT: 66.67%)  

2. Australia - (PCT: 61.45%)  

3. India - (PCT: 52.77%)  

4. New Zealand- (PCT: 48.21%)  

5. Sri Lanka - (PCT: 45.45%)  

6. England - (PCT: 43.18%)  

7. Bangladesh- (PCT: 31.25%)  

8. Pakistan- (PCT: 30.30%)  

9. West Indies - (PCT: 24.24%)  

AUSTRALIA’S STRONG POSITION:  

Australia’s 10th win in the ongoing WTC cycle has boosted their PCT to 61.45% (up from 58.89%), putting Pat Cummins and his team within striking distance of their second consecutive WTC final. Meanwhile, South Africa has already secured qualification after defeating Pakistan in Centurion.  

WHAT INDIA NEEDS TO QUALIFY:  

India no longer controls their own fate. For Rohit Sharma’s team to keep their WTC hopes alive, they must achieve the following:  

1. Win the Final Test Against Australia in Sydney: 

   - A win would level the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-2, giving India a slim chance of qualifying.  

2. Sri Lanka to Defeat Australia 2-0:

   - India’s PCT would rise to 55.26%, while Australia’s would drop to 54.26%, allowing India to qualify.  

3. Avoid a Draw or Loss in Sydney:

   - If India lose or draw in Sydney, they will be officially out of the WTC final race.  

4. Australia Avoiding Defeat Against Sri Lanka:  

   - If Australia manages even a single draw in their two-Test series against Sri Lanka, they would end up with a higher PCT than India.  

UPCOMING CHALLENGES:  

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy finale in Sydney, starting January 3, holds the key to India’s survival in the WTC race. A win is non-negotiable, and even then, their qualification depends on Sri Lanka’s performance against Australia.  

SUMMARY:  

India faces an uphill battle to qualify for the WTC final at Lord’s in June 2025. With South Africa already through, the race is now between India and Australia for the second spot. All eyes will be on Sydney, where the final Test could determine India’s WTC fate.