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India's path to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final hangs in the balance after the third Test of India tour of Australia series against Australia ended in a rain-affected draw at The Gabba, Brisbane. The Test, played from December 14 to 18, saw only 2.1 overs bowled in the fourth innings due to persistent rain. With this result, India retained their No. 3 spot on the WTC 2023-25 points table but faces a challenging route to secure a place in the final.  

INDIA’S CURRENT SCENARIO  

Having lost the WTC finals in 2021 and 2023 to New Zealand and Australia, respectively, India remains determined to reach the 2025 final at Lord’s. For that to happen, Rohit Sharma’s team must win the remaining two Tests of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia. These matches are scheduled to take place in Melbourne (December 26–30) and Sydney (January 3–7).  

If India clinches both games and secures a 2-1 series win, they will still require external factors to work in their favour. Specifically, Sri Lanka must avoid being whitewashed in their upcoming two-Test series against Australia.  

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AND SCENARIOS  

1. India Wins 2-1:

   If India defeats Australia in Melbourne and Sydney to win the series 2-1, their qualification will depend on Sri Lanka either drawing or winning at least one match against Australia in their subsequent series.  

2. Series Ends 2-2:

   If both India and Australia win one match each, resulting in a 2-2 draw, India’s hopes will hinge on Sri Lanka defeating Australia in their Test series.  

3. Remaining Tests End in Draws:

     In the unlikely scenario where both remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney are drawn, India’s qualification would require Sri Lanka to either draw or win their series against Australia.  

SOUTH AFRICA’S ROLE IN THE QUALIFICATION PICTURE  

Meanwhile, South Africa, currently leading the WTC 2023-25 points table, has a strong chance of securing their spot in the final. The Proteas will confirm their place if they beat Pakistan in their two-match Test series starting on December 26. The first Test will be played at SuperSport Park in Centurion, followed by the second at Newzealand in Cape Town from January 3 to 7.  

India's fate in the WTC 2025 cycle is no longer solely in their hands. While victories in the remaining matches are crucial, external results involving Sri Lanka and South Africa will ultimately decide their destiny.