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Although the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has consistently maintained that a hybrid model for the February 19-March 9, 15-game competition is unacceptable, it appears the ICC may have limited alternatives. A hybrid model, featuring 10 games in Pakistan and five in another country - including one semifinal and the final - is expected to be proposed during discussions.

As a potential compromise, the ICC may strive to minimise the impact of the hybrid model and may agree to host both semifinals and the final in Pakistan itself in the unlikely scenario of India failing to qualify for the last four or last two stages. While such an arrangement would pose serious operational and logistical challenges, this concession might be offered to the PCB given the extraordinary circumstances. The venues will be kept ready in advance with all required hotel and travel bookings.

At this stage, the ICC is believed to be still undecided about where to host the India games. Though UAE - with venues in Dubai and Abu Dhabi - is a potential and convenient alternative venue, South Africa also remains a strong contender due to favorable weather conditions during that period of the year. Both the Emirates Cricket Board (ECB) and Cricket South Africa (CSA) are expected to be approached for discussions soon, if they have not been already.

It is unlikely that the PCB will immediately accept the ICC's potential decision in favour of a hybrid model. However, with an overwhelming majority of the ICC board - possibly a vote also would be taken among the 14 board members - supporting the proposal, the PCB may have little choice but to comply. The ICC board could also propose relocating the entire tournament away from Pakistan if the hybrid model is rejected by it.

The situation may eventually pan out this way. There is every chance that the PCB chief Mohsin Naqvi could seek time to consult the Pakistan government and ask for 24-48 hours time. He then would bare the facts before the government about its minority position at the ICC meeting, and the overwhelming majority in favour of the hybrid model.

The general thinking here is that the PCB and the Pakistan government may eventually relent since they will be explained that a Champions Trophy without India will be untenable not only for the ICC but to the entire cricket ecosystem. It could be a loss-loss situation for the PCB as it will lose millions of dollars if the tournament is taken away from the country.

The decision could have immediate consequences, with Pakistan potentially opting out of tournaments to be hosted in India, including the Women's World Cup and men's Asia Cup next year, as well as the T20 World Cup later in 2026. However, such decisions may unfold at a later stage.

The impact of Pakistan's withdrawal from the Women's World Cup remains uncertain. But the Asian Cricket Council (ACC), which recently sold the broadcast rights to Sony for $170 million, may consider swapping next year's Asia Cup host from India to Sri Lanka or Bangladesh to balance the situation.